There is a lot of confusion in Sweden regarding crime rates, the impact immigration has on those crime rates and how to interpret statistics used by politicians as arguments in the upcoming election. One reason for me to write this is that I don’t care about the left-right scale – so I’m unlikely to end up biased due to that scale of ideology. The political scale I care about is authoritarianism versus free, as in libertarian. Anyone who knows Senator Rand Paul and his father Ron Paul knows what I mean. It’s also important to understand the differences between fiscal policies, social policies, foreign policies and others – I will not go into to that here – that’s for other articles. I mention it because of the current political narratives pushed by some small extreme groups dividing the Swedish nation because of religious and political strategies.
I will not try to make this article structured and science-like – this is a random collection of experiences and knowledge I’ve acquired the last couple of years by reading, talking with people and researching publically available sources.
Let’s start with a graph I made in spring 2018:
Police in Sweden has acknowledged that crime in Sweden is on a new level. The trend is pointing up and the increase is from an average of 90-ish to 112-ish dead in deadly violence per year. The main reason for this is hundreds of shootings in 2017 and previous years. The number of dead in those shootings 2017 was 47 or 41, depending on what source you trust. Add hand grenade explosions, terror attacks and bombings. I will get back to the problem with sources later on.
Let’s delve into the numbers here.
First of all: Sweden has a population of 10 million people. Swedes reported 1,51 million crimes 2017. Statistics says that 113 of those was murder or homicide – deadly violence. It means that your risk of getting killed in Sweden is approx. 1,6 out of 100.000. That is a very low number. A country like Finland also has about 80-100-ish killed every year, but their population is 5 million, so the risk in Finland is and has always been twice or trice as high. The reason I say trice is that Finland has far less immigration and far fever gangs and no-go-zones (if any at all) and that most likely means that Swedish natives, excluding immigrants, are far less likely to get killed even though shootings are a big thing in Swedish media, including terror attacks, hand grenade attacks and bombings. This also goes for Swedish speaking Finns that are in the range of 1 per million in risks, a number I think is valid also for white native Swedes with jobs and a family.
As you can see in the graph year 2012 shows a dip to 68. Finland had 89. (In 2012 Norway had 0,6 killed per 100,000, Sweden 1,2 and Finland 1,6). At that time politicians were very proud and announced that politicians and police were doing a great job fighting and preventing crime. One year later, they could not claim that anymore. Sweden is a small country, and a few bad people or incidents can easily make things look worse. The other thing that can happen is that the staff doing the statistics are skewing the numbers. That can be done in both good ways and bad. I will tell you how that works with a lot of examples.
The Swedish government agency brå prepares the Swedish crime statistics. They sum up the numbers at the beginning of the year for the previous year using the coded input from systems maintained by police and prosecutors and others. I will focus on deadly violence and later on rape and sexual offences, simply because of the complexity in the 1,51 million reported crimes.
When reading the number of murders and homicide for 2017 and other years, it’s important to grasp some proportions and separate them from biased political views and opinions.
- Swedish police have been using a code – 291 – to hide crimes committed by immigrants. As I understand it, they’ve coded a lot of different crimes into that single code, thus making it hard or impossible to build statistics on real and true data. It’s impossible for me to say if that has effects on the graph above. Not only did they code crimes into one big heap, they also deliberately did not investigate some of those crimes. Thus making it impossible to say if there were homicides included in those 291’s. Say for example that a victim was assaulted and went into a coma for a long time, then dying. That is a homicide, but if the assault was not (properly) investigated and if the statistics exclude code 291, then it won’t show up in the statistics.
- I’ve seen different numbers on the number of shot and killed 2017 in Sweden – 41 or 47. One legit reason that a shooting doesn’t have to be a homicide is that the police investigation and autopsy can end up concluding that it’s a suicide. Another problem in a case like this is that police sometimes forget to recode a suspected homicide to suicide, and that’s not odd at all. A case can be ongoing for years and staff change all the time. This can also work the other way, a suicide coded as such can turn out to be a murder. Sometimes 10-20 years pass between the event and the turn-around. Swedish ‘serial killer’ Thomas Quick was sentenced for 8 murders he didn’t commit. As far as I understand it, those murders and ‘murders’ has always been part of this statistics thus skewing them. The turn-around was done 20 years after 6 different courts found him guilty for murders he never committed. In one or two cases the death was probably natural, freezing to death at night while drunk was one of them.
- You can often read in the media about men, usually husbands, being arrested for suspected homicide. After some investigation, they are released because the death was natural or caused by something else, like an elk or something. Media does not spend a lot of effort to turn around the impression that there was a homicide. It leaves a lot of people with the impression that there are much more homicides than there is in reality. The same goes for rape. Police code it as suspected rape because that is a prerequisite to start an investigation, it’s later mostly written off as no crime at all. Like in this case where a drunk woman falling made headlines and created speculations, and also attacks on refugees. I don’t speculate about this. I’m 100% sure. I know the people that know the outcome of the investigation aka local police and journalists.
- The number of people shot in Sweden the year 2017 is extraordinary. No matter if it was 41 or 47, that has never happened before in Swedish criminal history. The background to those shootings are well known and they are published in detail in investigative journalism in Sweden. I’ve been following one sequence that has its centre close to my home in Stockholm – 5 dead in a series of 15+ shootings over 5 years. There is other similar series and they all have one thing in common: there are no native Swedes involved, with one or two exceptions. Furthermore, and this is important to know in regards to politics and statistics, almost no-one shooting or among the killed is newly immigrated. Almost all are born and raised in Sweden by immigrant parents. The wave of immigration 2014-2018 has a very little impact on the 113-list of homicides in Sweden. Some politicians try to connect those two, but that is political bias, except for the fact that the current immigration wave may yield a crime wave 15 to 20 years down the line when a new generation living in no-go-zones buy weapons and sell drugs. Because, yes, the shootings in Sweden are related to drug trading in certain bad areas.
- Sweden does not specify race or nationality in its crime statistics. The impression I get is that serious crime among the native Swedish population is going down every year. It may even get close to the Japanese numbers if you use the Japanese legislation for that comparison. Part of Japan’s extremely low crime rate is that some actions are not defined as crimes in Japan, but they are in Sweden – rape and sexual offences are some of those that are defined differently. Finland produces stats with the number of foreigners who committed crimes. It says like 10-20%. There are absolutely no conclusions to draw from that – a foreigner can be a Finn with Swedish citizenship who has returned to Finland.
- Part of that legal definition domain is a claim done by female politicians and feminist activists in Sweden. The claim is that 17 Swedish women on average are killed by men in a relationship with the woman. Swedish feminist organisations and women shelters have received billions of Swedish kronor to work on a zero-tolerance vision on that, with poor results. Part of the analysis is about the patriarchy, power, suppression and white males doing bad stuff. To get billions of money is easy for them, but the zero-vision will never happen because the analysis is wrong. I know that because I did read about 100 court verdicts going into details with the names and the background for those cases. Five examples from those homicides were a man and a woman where involved: young boy goes into the kitchen, picks up a knife, kills grandmother with multiple stabs. 2. A male breaks into a home and kills his father and the father’s new wife. The male has previously 10 years earlier killed his mother and his brother lives in a secret location. 3. A family is found dead. Father, mother, two daughters. A letter is also found. The parents decided to kill their daughters in a gentle way with medications and then commit suicide. It’s unclear if the mother and father in parallel committed suicide or if the father waited and assisted his wife. Depending on that, it was two or three homicides. 4. Female social worker JM have a refugee kill her ex-husband and father, mother survives. 5. Man and woman are found dead due to violence after heavy drinking in a socially challenging environment. The investigation concludes that it’s likely the female that has triggered the violence and caused both to die. A third drunk person was there but he says that he can’t remember and that both the others were very drunk – no-one remembers what actually happened. In no case here is it a dominant white male proving his alpha-male superiority. When you read a large number of verdicts and also the underlying documents from the investigations you will find that the cases are unique and that the cause is mental problems, drugs, alcohol, suddenly going postal or in some cases, religious believes or alien cultural frictions. There are some true cases with native Swedish couples where things go wrong, but you find that in 30-50% of those cases it’s a female causing a chain of event going out of control. Or as in the case of JM the female social worker who had her ex-husband and father killed – it’s not counted into the 17 alleged cases of ‘violence in close relations’ because she is a female. So the statistics are a political construct and it does not reflect reality. It’s cherrypicking and window-dressing. And last but not least – the women killed by their husbands are usually immigrant women trying to adjust to Swedish society by being independent. The immigrant male tries to suppress that. The woman usually seeks help from Swedish authorities and police, they are usually denied that and then they die. Because the money allocated is used for native white Swedish women in the cities and not by those who really need them.
- There is a bias that says in any given year and month that ‘everything is getting worse’. It’s not. It is well proven that violence is declining rapidly. A sudden increase in shootings that sustains for 5-10 years does not prove that it must increase in the future. One example of that is New York that was in a very bad shape in the 70′-80’s. New policies and new politicians decreased the numbers significantly. In other nations and cities, one new president or mayor may cause an increase in crime or violence rapidly by implementing bad policies and making bad decisions, like Sadiq Kahn in London 2018. Chicago and California are also there now in 2018. The reason violence is declining is wealth. People who have a family, some money, a home and a job do commit fever crimes because it’s a bad business model with too high risks. It’s smarter to enjoy your time with family and friends doing fun things. Wealth has arrived at billions of hard-working people the last decades = less crime. Even successful criminals choose that road – they go from black money to grey to white and become business leaders in many cases.
- Another classic bias is ‘It used to be better in the good old days’. It wasn’t. You will never get to see the list of the worst mass killers in Sweden. The three worst mass or serial killers in Sweden was nurse ‘Erik‘ who killed 27 people in 1979 in a hospital in Malmö, Tore Hedin, a police who killed 10 people, and Mattias Flink who killed 7 people in Falun some 23 years ago. (Hilda Nilsson, änglamakerska killed 8 children 1900-ish). The notion that the last terror attack in Sweden was unique or the worst act that has ever taken place in Sweden is not true. Other incidents way back in time was worse and the criminals were native Swedes. The only pattern with those three worst cases is that they were male, white and paid to protect and nurture people paid by taxpayers money in public institutions. Two of them had weapons as part of their jobs, as police and military. So if I would like to create a political construct and narrative that I can prove with real cases, then I would opt from taking all weapons from police and military and I would ban poisonous drugs and cleaning chemicals at hospitals. In real life, I don’t – because those crimes were isolated incidents that have not been repeated. And that is another bias. No, Norway had Anders Behring Breivik but that was not a start of a trend or movement or the Knights of the Templars getting started again in Europe. Neither was the Swedish serial and mass murderers back in time the start of a trend.
- There are some shady areas in defining deaths by violence in statistics. I remember a very drunk truck driver rolling off a polish ferry and then running over a car with a family in it, two parents and two small kids. They had no chance to survive. That is clearly a homicide in my eyes. It’s a criminal act, but it might not be coded that way. There is also the regular woman who drives her car over her husband and claims that it was an accident even though they were known to have regular conflicts. Newborn babies buried in the backyard is another one that I don’t think making it into the homicide statistics.
- The definitions and groupings of crimes change over time making it impossible to compare numbers over a long time. Sometimes the definitions change because someone needs to hide a trend or a result of political decisions. Nations sentence differently thus making it futile to compare numbers. Someone freed in Sweden would get 40 years in the US and 4 years in Finland for the same incident or crime.
- Police solve far fewer crimes now than previous. Lower rates could be because crimes are written off. See graph below.
I could continue this list but I will stop here in regards of what is what in statistics. It’s about the futility of using isolated incidents and a short series of crimes as some kind of ‘proof’ for a sustaining trend. If the statistics were broken down one step and became more fine-tuned defining the kind of death and then also grouped them into causes like mental health, alcohol, gun, gang-related and so forth, then it would make sense to use it politically in both arguments and for analyzing how to deal with crime. (At least in regards of location- 80% of the violent killings in Latin America occur on only 2% of the streets.) As it is now the numbers basically say that Sweden is stable and that Finland is three times more dangerous for a native citizen if these stats are used for guidance.
Next: rape and sexual crime statistics and politics. I could write a book about this but I will do the shortest version I can.
In Swedish official statistics, there are 5 cases of rape and/or sexual assault and similar offences that tells a story. Those 5 cases are the accusations against Juli*an Ass*ange. I’ve read the transcripts of the police interrogations, so I know what all witnesses say about what took place. The case is now closed for the second time, it was also closed 2010 during a couple of days and it was closed again in 2017. In the Swedish official statistics, they are still counted as rape and assault. As in REPORTED rape and assault. There has never been a prosecution. Both these cases and other false reporting are counted as rape and assault. The categories are mixed up by purpose, the numbers are the reported numbers and not the number of sentenced cases. The normal number of people sentenced to jail for rape annually is about 220-240 in a population of 10 million. Add the other categories. The number that political activists and feminists are pushing is in the range of 18.000-90.000 rapes per year. Add the new consent law and you could probably find dark numbers of rape close to 500.000 if that is what your imagination is capable of.
Part of that ‘thinking’ in statistics did occur in a case at the beginning of July 2018 in Sweden. A (Swedish) teacher couple in western Sweden had the responsibility as foster parents to a girl when she was 9-15 years old. It turned out that they raped her on a regular basis and used her in BDSM sex. I’ve seen two different numbers on how many times they raped her: 200 and 500. No matter what, the number will end up as 200 or 500 rapes in the 2018 statistics. That will push the statistical numbers up and that will be used by some politicians as proof of increased and many rapes. In reality, they are 200 or 500 rapes done during the 6-7 previous years with one victim only in one case only.
Another case is two (Swedish) brothers sentenced for more than 1000 rapes committed on children during almost 10 years. They ended up as 1000+ rapes in the 2017 statistics, hence skewing the analysis. Anyone blasting about a higher number of rapes in Sweden and in the UNODC-statistics and not mentioning this statistical bias is biasing the debate. Looking at numbers is one thing, but you really have to understand the methodology and underlying data in cases like this. There are also cases with ‘online-rape’ where males lure girls to do sexual acts. They can have some 100 or more cases in one court case and are usually defined as rape. These cases are part of the 90.000 vs 220-ish.
There are two longterm political projects in Sweden being nurtured by the rape narratives. None of them is true. The first one is the feminist rape epidemics narrative. It is true that immigrants are involved in rape and sexual assault. In some categories like gang rapists, some 90-95% are born or have parents born outside Sweden. Still, if you use the method of measuring per capita, you’ll find that the risk for any woman to be a victim of this crime is extremely low, very much so if you live in a low criminality area or low criminality social context. The true numbers are excluding the cases I previously mentioned with 100+ rapes in one case and you also need to take into consideration that assault counts as rape in Sweden. And that its the reported, not the prosecuted cases that are the base for the stats. Having said that, I want to make clear that there are some seriously disturbing cases of rape and murder in Sweden that should be punished much harder and where the criminals should not have been in Sweden at all. That includes the terror attack in April 2017 in Stockholm with 5 dead.
Feminists use ‘dark numbers’ and exaggerate everything they can, for political gain and financing. I’ve met innocently accused and sentenced men with relatives supporting them. I know for various reasons that those men are innocent. The thing with them is that their female relatives, wives and children were the main victims when they were sent to jail. The stigmatisation and exclusion from people that stop talking to the kids and females are a price they pay for life or at least decades. They also lose huge sums of money. The notion that feminists and accusers are doing a service to society because they have someone jailed is not true. The cost in human suffering is very high for those innocently accused and families. I don’t care for the guilty ones. Some of them deserve to die in prison and should never be released, like Anders Eklund, a truly evil man guilty of two murders, that does not deserve to live at all.
The other narrative is the ‘far-right’ narrative that points out groups and nationalities.
Let me go into depth with nationality and statistics: when you think about going back to a system where immigrants are counted separately in statistics (because Sweden doesn’t do that currently) because it creates some paranoia and people saying that the authorities are hiding the reality, then I’m actually sceptic by two reasons. The first one is that people are marrying and living together and getting children in a lot of mixed relations where its impossible to define nationality in the end. If you try to follow family trees in 2-3-4 generations in some families, it’s impossible to define what country that family comes from. Try the Swedish royal family – go figure out how to count the new generation of babies they produce at the moment and also how the previous generations looked. The whole thing becomes ridiculous if you look at the current king’s ancestors 500 years back. It doesn’t make any sense to make a difference between the royals situation and others. The other part of that problem is that if you break down the crime stats you’ll end up with rather small numbers. Let’s say that you have 240 people sent to jail for rape 2018. Break that group down into nationalities. Then break those down into different categories of rape: gang, online, wife, assault outdoors, drunk at a restaurant, mental disorder. The categorization will yield so small numbers so that you cannot develop new strategies to combat each category, because you will end up with hundreds of categories. What would you do with 3 men from country X where male 1 raped his wife, male 2 was drunk on a pub and went violent and male 3 had online sex with a 13yo? Repeat that pattern for 240 males and tell me what you would use that information for. There is some concern about the volumes for Syrians and Somalis, but they would not override immigration policies because it’s probably a very few percents of those nations immigrants that end up in jail. It’s probably in the range of say 10-30 per 100.000 and refusing 99.970 people immigration because of those 10-30 is not fair. Other reasons may exist, but the crime statistics are not made for that even if nationality is included.
Why do people become criminals? (A Swedish feminist will phrase it: why do white males become criminals? – but I include JM and others. JM is a female social worker in jail for 2 murders and a huge pile of other crimes in Sweden).
The narrative is marxist sociology junk. The reptile brain in most people says ‘he or she had a bad childhood and he/she became bad’. Others will add something about drugs and alcohol and the environment. I believe that there are two higher level phenomena that are the root causes of criminality. The first main reason is trauma caused by war or other violence. We still live in a post-WWII-world. The trauma inflicted on hundreds of millions of Europeans and others meant mental suffering spilling over to the next generations, but declining over time. Destroyed families and unfathomable fear combined with PTSD and other mental conditions still play an invisible role in peoples everyday life. And it’s the same for many, but not all, immigrants.
Broken families and ending up in a new country with a new culture is hard, really hard. If you end up in a bad place feeling low and not being able to control your own life and if you don’t have access to good friends and your family, then that will create the environment for drug abuse and criminality. Criminals usually exit criminality when 30-40 because they get a job, a spouse and kids to be responsible for. Criminality is almost never a life-long commitment. There are almost no gangs with 40-50-60-year olds roaming the streets, with some very few exceptions. Gangs are almost never on the market more than 5-10 years because the business model is stupid and the organisation is based on authority and cult-like behaviour aka slavery. Honest work pays much more and will most likely not have you killed. Creating real jobs, open up markets and give a criminal a family and the criminality will often dry up. The cure is capitalism and a free market.
The other thing that makes people criminals are mental conditions. I think that some of it is about epigenetics and inherited memories. There is some underlying psychology going on in some peoples brains and subconscious that make them behave badly or in a criminal way in some situations. Murder and crime have always been a part of human history in all cultures. There is a base frequency that is caused by sudden actions in some situations by some people. There is also the ideologues, the terrorists, the communists, the fascists and the other madmen just wanting destruction and mayhem. Some are maybe born to mothers who drank and took hard drugs during pregnancy, maybe before they did realize they were pregnant, maybe not. Again, you can’t and should not generalize. Not even the individuals that have a criminal mind knows why they have the problems they have. A random observer with no insight will know even less. What will happen to the two kids in Hallonbergen in Stockholm that recently saw their parents killed by a gang of thugs that also decapitated their mother in front of them? Killed because they witnessed a murder outside their window and a policeman told the suspect their names. If you meet some very mental young people 15-25 years from now, it may be the two children who were left without parents. If you don’t know the story, don’t judge.
Let me also add something about honour. There are honour killings in Sweden with both men and women as victims. Many shootings are also honour related. A perceived insult will always be met by retaliation by some people. Honour is a driver in some deadly violence in Sweden. There is a lot of chain-of-events including a lot of dead gang members in Sweden.
I’m not a crime or criminal apologist. I have been a victim of crime a number of times and have had neighbours with a criminal record and a criminal lifestyle. I could have been without that experience. I think that some repeat offenders should get increased and longer sentences, I think that Sweden should focus on real crimes and serious criminals much more and let pity ‘crimes’ like Facebook opinion posts be left alone. More criminals should lose their Swedish citizenship and be thrown out of Sweden and banned from returning. Crime victims should receive a lot more financial compensation from the criminal and government funding. I would like to see 3-4 times higher payout to compensate the victims. Some housing areas should be torn down or be redesigned and rebuilt. Some police stations should be moved to bad areas. Some key crime spots should be rebuilt.
Stacking statistics would be good for everyone not profiting from crime. You can easily define sexual crimes into 10-15 levels of severity and build statistics on those categories. You don’t have to replace the current statistical model – you can have multiple statistical models in parallel. The underlying data can also be in multiple formats and shapes. One solution would be to redistribute anonymized data from all public and other sources into a data lake in the cloud and open up for everyone to produce what they see fit.
Stacking deadly violence would be welcome in order to defuse un-proportional arguments. I imagine that it would look like this:
Category 1: gang-related, foreign origin, drug market, honour
Category 2: family-related, alcohol
Category 3: random killing, non-related persons
Category 4: motivated by politics, religion or other belief
Category 5: random killing 1-on-1.
The point is to group them into entities that make sense for people working with different categories, differentiate categories of victims and criminals so that blurred numbers are not used for political purposes and propaganda. Like saying that the increase in deadly violence in Sweden between 2012 (68 dead) and 2017 (113 dead) was caused by the wave of immigration 2014-2017. It was not. The increase was most likely caused by people born in Sweden by parents who immigrated in the 1990’s, living in no-go-zones and lacking integration into Sweden.
One basis for my assumptions above is that I have read and understood Steven Pinker’s book “The Better Angels of Our Nature“. Please look and listen to the video if you have the opportunity. Crime is declining in Sweden and almost everywhere else in the long term. It’s currently up in the short term. Take for example deadly violence in 2012 in Sweden – 68 people. That was a big decline from the previous years that had 80-90 dead. The same way that numbers are up 2015-2017, normal short-term fluctuations. Selecting a new authoritarian government based on that is totally out of proportions. Other reasons may exist, but the crime stats are not good enough.
Let me finish this post by mentioning some crimes in Sweden that has received very little attention even though they are very special and actually are trending.
There has been three decapitations and beheadings in Sweden lately and all of them on the streets in front of other people. They occurred in Surahammar, Hallonbergen and Tensta. There are other ones, but these three were random attacks in public.
There is also stonings in Sweden. Västerås, Hässelby and random forest (including electrocution).
I will keep track of those and see if that is a sustainable trend. The same goes for acid attacks.
I did mention that the sentenced criminals in two cases were (Swedish). The purpose of that is not to associate Swedes with those crimes, but to point out that by naming the nationality, there will be Guilt By Association that doesn’t add any value, the contrary.
MSB report 2018-11-12
The Economist: How to cut the murder rates
Historical data, homicide in Sweden vs Finland
BRÅ, dödligt våld historiskt, uppdelning
Dark numbers. 42 million crimes in connection to traffic cameras not prosecuted.
How Scotland reduced crime
Rosen Orlando – How to turn around a community